BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card at Australia. DraftKings altered up their competitions a bit and I enjoy the new choice of contests and prizes. The main GPP is now a $10 buy and $30k goes to 1st place. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m really not loving this slate for cash games, and I was only going to decide on the principal event stack for my money game play of the week. However, I will see the main event only scoring ~100 total points and once I’m stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the pile and I think Shane Young makes a great money game play. I don’t know how high of a ceiling he has since I really do think this fight goes 3 rounds, but I really do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting finished. I believe he’s a high floor since this battle should go all 3 rounds, but I think he is the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this fight with a mixture of wrestling and striking. I do think he has 100-point upside in a decision, and that I also think he can complete this fight. However, I feel like he’s a secure play for 80+ and that’s why he’s my cash game play of this week rather than my GPP playwith. GPP drama of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I believe the only real way Kang loses this fight is by becoming KO’d. He should be the far superior fighter on the mat, and I think he can hang on the toes too. I expect him to look for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara has no floor game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does possess heavy power in his hands I believe Kang includes a floor of 0 points, but that is exactly why he’s my GPP play of the week rather than my money game play of the week. In money, I wish to lock in high flooring and that is not what we have here. I enjoy this for GPPs because when he loses at $9.4k it won’t matter how many things he has, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we could still come off with a gain if he lost a decision at the price and still scored 30-40 points, we’d simply need to hit our other spots. We don’t need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside because he will be the fighter attempting to grapple and that I could see him getting numerous takedowns in addition to a submission. I think he has a 1st or 2nd round entry and I do not expect for him to endure too long with Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who could be popular.
Underdog drama of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually picking Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this fight to stay standing for as long as it continues. I personally find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that is true, then I believe Gastelum gets the maximum floor of the underdogs since he’ll have 5 rounds to work with and he will land a fair amount of shots. In addition, I believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that might not place him on the 30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or decision, he’ll almost surely be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That’s why he’s my underdog play of the week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I have to remain on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have picked him as my fade each time he’s fought so that I will roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only way Alvey can possibly score highly is by obtaining a win. He does not strike at a high enough pace to score highly in a decision and that he will not be heading for almost any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that may not be enough to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x out of a fighter once I roll them and with his $7.9k price tag, so I want at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 54-34 to get +177.13u (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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