This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card at Brazil. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to receive my 3rd chair this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at that $30k prize, then I will likely have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is your cash game play on for me . On the betting line he’s now -1100 and he’s -206 to acquire ITD. He is also +110 to win in round 1. He is my favourite play on the plank, the only real issue is being able to afford him. For money games, I will for sure fit him in. For GPPs it’s going to be harder to get 6 wins paying up for his massive salary, but I like him there as well. I simply won’t make it a priority to get him into those tournament lineups, but money I want that -1100 in my group for a safe win.
GPP play of this week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I like to target. My preferred drama is Spann however Little Nog is in play also. The line for FDGTD is -280 and I think Spann could win via KO or sub, and it could be 1st round as well. I think he could compete with the $9k fighters and he is a man that kicks off them the 1st place lineup. Small Nog is the better boxer though and Spann does not have a fantastic chin himself, so that I really could see Nog winning via KO. I really don’t think that’s likely, therefore I won’t be heavy on him, but he will make my participant pool. Spann is a guy I think is in play in most formats and that I will attempt to be overweight on him. It’s more of a grin on Little Nog at this time, but I really don’t see this battle going all 3-rounds and that I enjoy Spann to find the win.
Underdog drama of the week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I anticipate Volkanovski to be quite chalky and rightfully so. He’s my favorite play in this fight and his past scores pretty much make him a man you can not fade if you’re MMEing. I really don’t see him using the ceiling he did in his previous fights vs Aldo, but these numbers are hard to dismiss. His 6 UFC wins have each totaled over 100 DK points. From latest fight to his introduction, these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That is pretty wonderful. I think he’s a fantastic prospect of upsetting the legend here and possibly getting an end for another score. I don’t believe Aldo is a fantastic matchup for him to demonstrate that 100+ stage ceiling but at $7.8k we don’t require that many points. I think IF he wins, he easily pays off that wages.
Fade of the week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There is no way I am paying 8.9k for Carolina. She is the fade of this week and if it disturbs me then it disturbs me. I don’t see that being true though even when she wins. I expect this fight to stay standing and I don’t see her striking at a speed to pay off her cost without obtaining a finish. I don’t believe she gets that finish so even when she wins I believe she scores closer to 75 DK points and in her salary that won’t end up on the perfect lineup. Even if I create 150 lineups this week I will not get any vulnerability to Carolina.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 76-45 to get +260.95 (+$26,095) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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