UFC ESPN 1 & Bellator 215/216

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Matt Mitrione FREE Breakdown:
Sergei Kharitonov comes into this one riding high with all the bookies after defeating Roy Nelson, but at age 38 his skills are unlikely to be advancing. Mitrione has the superior technique, durability and power status that ought to see him with a reasonable advantage. Kharitonov will be seeking to get down the fight but it will be hard given Mitrione’s superior athleticism. Expect a tentative start from both men before Mitrione starts amassing strikes to get a TKO stoppage.
Bet = Mitrione at 1.95 (-105) odds. Risk 3 Units to win 2.85 Units.Francis Ngannou Breakdown:
Cain is coming to this fight after a significant injury layoff. Actually he has had just 1 victory since Ngannou entered the UFC, having fought 9 times himself. With so many question marks on his condition the fight seems to be lined too broad. Ngannou obviously has enormous stopping power and will be quite dangerous on the toes early. If Cain has lost a step or comes from appearing slow he’s in trouble. Historically his style brings a whole lot of pressure to competitions but he is open to shooting shots himself, especially when gassed. Both men have avenues to success here, Ngannou is able to keep the fight standing and find an early KO. Cain will wish to avert the early storm and look to wear the larger man out using takedowns and cage strain. We like the underdog in what seems to be a 50/50 fight going in. On the other hand, the winner of the struggle is very likely to look dominant.
Bet = Ngannou at 2.65 (+165) odds. Risk 2 Units to win 3.3 Units.
James Vick Breakdown:
Vick’s stock is at an all time low after his recent KO but his conduct towards the top was remarkable. Inside this matchup he will be the superior technical fighter with the length and speed benefit. Felder has a propensity to mimic his competitor but he will need to turn this one into a brawl to find success. It’s possible he joins with a kill shot, but all other paths to success have been in Vick’s favour. Felder requires a close range fight to utilise his best weapons but Vick has revealed he can stick into a gameplan and keep it at range. We like the lineup on Vick to cruise to victory with a medical decision.
Bet = Vick at 1.91 (-110) chances. Risk 3 Units to win 2.73 Units.
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